destroy? Networking. Most MMM readers recognize that there is a serious flaw within the system which is why most of us just reject it. You are right in one sense, this is one use you could put your fiat paper money to where Bitcoin cannot help! The fees are incredible. Evan Drake This means whoever is buying this paper is doing so despite the fact they are guaranteed to lose money on the investment. Much of this buying has been propelled by central banks which can print their own currency and buy debt indiscriminately. BTC wont be the winner but with over 1300 coins the winner has likely been created. You are as usual missing the point and are behind trivia! For those of us who live in USA and use the USD for our currency, what does it mean to trust that government, which is currently breaching 19 TRILLION dollars in debt (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_of_the_United_States) while simultaneously reducing its revenue stream (tax breaks for everyone). It all depends on how much personal enjoyment they get compared to the cost to own them. If THAT does happen (BTC=100K), it will prove once more that BTC is not a currency at all. And gold has at least *some* practical value you can make attractive jewelry that doesnt tarnish, use it in electronics, dental fillings. The vast majority of the companies trying to monetize the internet failed. Wow, you really have no idea how hydroelectric power works. Mr. Money Mustache's argument easily boils down to the soundbyte that "bitcoin's price is fundamentally unpredictable, which makes it a terrible investment decision.". The truly irrational. However, taking a very small gamble doesnt hurt 99% is invested in s&p 500 and that will remain like that :). Bitmains S9 efficiency is at ~0.1 J/GHs. Note that if you remove any of these essential elements, youve made the system effectively worthless. Then my father used the same toilet paper for his cars and his house? I suspect it will have uses beyond public currency. It can have applications in the monetary system, contracts, and even as a component in higher level protocols like sharing files. But sometimes they do. January 3, 2018, 12:14 pm. The ones that take off will likely be govt created versions. I just dont understand the new economy. It is accumulated by countries, banks, and careful funancial entities. Kevin S Coleman In my opinion crypto prices are ahead of their real use value today as they factor in the potential. Ms. Frugal Asian Finance Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! We still need banks for other forms of financial services such as loans, investments, business services, etc.. Will Bitcoin replace that, too? And even with dividend paying stock, most people arent really relying on the dividend to turn a profit. Its a vicious cycle, but Ive just got to bite the bullet instead of going Wah, it was $2 cheaper a week ago.. Mr. Money Mustache For this article, I have set the bar much lower to show you the religious conviction that crypto speculators have. Who would help the poor, elderly and uneducated those without BTC? Yeah, Ive discussed the mining with my friend from NVidia. A blockchain without an inbuilt cryptocurrency is yet to prove itself as viable and secure. Although I do get where MMM is trying put an emphasis on the difference in investing and speculation. Unconfirmed BTC transactions already in the 6 digits now. Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. January 2, 2018, 7:11 pm. Maybe then it will go away. So you did. im not some conspiracy theorist but I do see the value in a global decentralized currency (none of which is tax evasion btw, Every major exchange currently advises and provides you with a modified 1099-INT for you to file taxes, the IRS as well recognizes bitcoin as owning property and implicated short/long term taxes for owners). But really, I'm not a finance guy - someone who devotes most of his time to optimizing money. Why? I have shown from above that their is value in digital currencies. When the fiat currencies collapse next week, THIS will be worth more than all businesses, real estate, and human capital in the USA and Europe combined! Bitcoin is actually a saviour that provides the world an opportunity to get out of total mess without fighting a WW3! College, Medical, Cars, houses, Child Care, Stocks, Bitcoin, hell even dining out is all overinflated. Update, three years later: Since I wrote this, the imaginary price of Bitcoin has continued to be all over the map it initially dropped over 70%, then it went back up many hundreds of percent, over and over. Id like to apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were compelled to spend some of your life energy on that. > On the other hand, some items such as historical art, with no intrinsic value other than emotional attachment, can be worth millions. As platforms. > However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. January 4, 2018, 7:42 am. Nixon just took away the last vestiges of the gold standard. When you say bitcoin is bad, I am asking how Fiat is any better at it? And yet this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin. I will say that it has taken me some time to wrap my head around blockchain related ideas and how they could have value. Apparently they didnt like my edits, where I called out rogue nations for propping up BitCoin as a means to bypass sanctions. But with 6-7 big mining players who dictate which fork of bitcoin to mine, the value of BTC or BCC or Segwit or whatever else comes, I have no faith in the value of BTC. Hurry! Thanks for sharing your opinion! But if that is the case, then it is far less irrational than are dollar bills, especially over long periods of time. So what Im saying isdont dismiss it based on where you see todays generation using todays rudimentary blockchain with todays technology and society. Cryptocurrencies are extremely risky. LennStar You, the skeptic will be holding straw because you were too stubborn with your ideals to change. Educate yourself on Lightning Network or layer 2 protocols of Bitcoin. Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. One book that I found very useful in understanding the greed-fear cycle (and Central Banking and the Federal Reserve system to boot) is the 2001 classic Towards Rational Exuberance by Mark Smith. January 3, 2018, 12:26 pm. Couldnt have said it any better myself. I agree with Tawcan. They only speculate that others may want them in the future. Whatever they are willing to pay to enjoy owning these things themselves is their business, and may make for a fairly rational purchase. This article is pretty below par in its research and very one sided. Bitcoin has its flaws and needs to improve as you mentioned: And always the fail to mention in your article that XXX XXX is in the works to address this very problem.. Also, just because something is open-source does not mean it cant be valuable. January 2, 2018, 7:09 pm. Bitcoin mania isnt different from the dot.com mania or any other mania going back to the tulip mania. Shut up, just send me $100 via PayPal and Ill send you a bag of my fingernail clippings. You are correct to note that Since the late 1990s when Shiller started promoting the CAPE ratio stocks have regularly been in bubble territory. A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent operation designed to steal peoples money. If not, you may want to think about selling. Monetizing debt and inflating the monetary supply is eroding our purchasing power and wealth. As long as you can find another willing buyer before the price crashes. There used to be cool arbitrage opportunities on a website called purse.io, where you could buy amazon products for a discount using bitcoin but transaction fees have made those types of business models (temporarily?) Time will tell. I 100% agree with what Vijay has been saying. Is having 1-2% of my overall portfolio in cryptocurrency stupid? No, not to me. I agree with you. Satoshi, while extreme in his views, watched the housing market collapse due to the fraudulent behavior of the banks and the government that backs them. Bitcoins arent duplicable, your fingernails could be replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass spectrometry. Gold has always been considered a commodity of high value. This is because society is nothing but an abstract grouping of individuals. Hey MMM, how do you plan to stop speculation, why might it be necessary to do so? The bubble crashed and the internet didnt die. About purse.io: Do you have to pay the transaction fee to deposit the BTC to escrow? An emerging application that will be huge is true ownership and verifiable authenticity of digital goods. Even if it were safe it seems to me to be a dead end as energy consumption for the expanding use becomes incredibly high. There you go. Money only has value if it is stable and trusted. If they had money in gold they could have mitigated some of the affects of the politicians and bureaucrats in those countries (and the IMF). Back it up, or youre just another nutjob. We can effectively automate trust. (Then Ill get out, right? If you want just one reason it is that governments will not allow it. Shit. Value is subjective; not all speculation is irresponsible; gold and other odd stores of value have novelty effects. All I had to do was sell the integrity of my blog for $100 non-bitcoin bucks (via PayPal of course.) False analogies. Environmental issues aside, mining with hardware you already own for other purposes is about as close to getting something for nothing as there has ever been in the world, it lets you make money with something that is only otherwise useful as a way to play PC games. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? So I did learn a bit about locking and unlocking information, hacking, and ensuring that independent brains (whether they are two adjacent CPUs on a circuit board or two companies negotiating across the Pacific) can trust each other and coordinate their actions in lockstep. I dont mind people investing in Bitcoin because its not my money. I dont know that page very good, but I think that answers this question ;). There is a very good chance that this article will be the butt of jokes 5 years down the road, when the toilet paper fiat currencies are all passe! What a bargain! Might want to polish that up before going public again. Buying real estate, gold, stocks, even ETFs and Bitcoins, all of these have risk. It grew to $240k. January 16, 2018, 4:53 pm. Think about how tomorrows generation will use far a more advanced blockchain tech to interact with far more advanced internet and general tech to create things that we cant even conceive of yet, let alone why they would have value. At least theyre cute and the grand kids like them! Also true. Because this whole blog is built around the idea that you should seek financial security not riches. I have to disagree with one of your points here: in a worst-case scenario, if you have enough gold, you may be able to beat it between some rocks to make a serviceable frying pan. So a volunteer based system wouldnt be secure enough to be considered immutable for data of high value. United States . Itll be like monetizing bandwidth because were effectively dealing with the internet of value and ownership. Great post. Maybe a real article will get the idea to sink in. I dont think attacking how Bitcoin is being used is a good argument because of this. I cant help but feel that a big part of the reason for Bitcoins continued rise is that theres no safe, practical way for us Bitcoin-skeptics to actually take a short position on it. I remain open to more information on the uses of Blockchain, but Ive never seen a valid fundamental reason for betting on future increases in the prices of these things. January 3, 2018, 4:34 am, Dont plan on investing in cryptocurrency. also look at russian, venezuala and Argentina for more proof of bitcoin. Its like Winston Churchill said: Gold is the silliest, most irrational thing you could ever use as money. Why do you think so? Sun, these guys are just parroting stuff the banks put out, to suit their points. His main investing motivation because he feels like hes late to the game and wants the earnings he could have had. Inexpensive computers thousands of times more powerful than the best you could buy for $10K in 1990. Im more inclined to trust contracts that cannot be broken. Thats crazy. Sounds like a bubble to me. I buy bitcoin with the expectation that bitcoin will solve the problems it currently faces and become more widely accepted thus increasing demand driving up the price. Let me know when you find a buyer for your $70k fingernail clippings. In 2018 and 2019, expect the speculation to subside as more tokenomics becomes important for valuations. Care to mention how deep you are into it? Check out RaiBlocks and other DAG-based coins. Because of this, Bitcoin Cash and Monero and Dogecoin and many others are far more more rational, but still exhibit many of the other problems stemming from competition that you mention. Mr. Frugal Toque Please dont fall for Hype, generally fed by the Banks and their Media! Currency is by far the most obvious application. Because I advocate something, I am not raving Mad! Anyway, in real terms, US stocks have been in a secular bear market since 1999. Mattheus And so my joker friend, how many Fiat currencies exist on this planet, have you even counted? I understand the concept of having an idea, building business around it with angel investors and later going public where you and I can invest but I dont understand investing in something like XRP. Rather like italicising. Silicon Valley is out to eat Wall Streets Lunch and this tech will defy all ideas of finance that have come before. Ill go with Ponzi Scheme. Pete and his wife retired at. Doubly so because it is now so broken by its development team that it is perhaps the only cryptocurrency that I know of that doesnt even work as currency. Be careful what you wish for. We end up in Utopia? They get to sell me their give cards at a discount and I get to buy stuff from Amazon for cheaper. How many decades of using toilet paper as a useful medium of exchange are required before you reevaluate your position? They always do.. So no, its not a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme, but its no better than taking a spin down the Vegas Strip either. That is a fairly dumb sock puppet, since he never spoke about them. People went off on many rants back when a single tulip bulb could have the same value as a ocean going ship, just as back then we had many people who couldnt stop talking about how great tulip bulbs are and why we should all be buying them. Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. Right! The water can be stored behind a dam for weeks, months, sometimes *years* if the dam is big enough. 3. If so, congratulations. 26 Replies 18313 Views March 27, 2020, 01:47:17 PM by talltexan: How do you press your kids to learn money habits? It has been made ground up to be censorship resistant and has been thriving for past 8 years despite singular opposition from every quarter. If you feel comfortable developing your own metrics with which to gauge coins and want to invest in projects long term, you can. I totally agree. OK Vijay but then why do you and others get so angry when some of us say we dont want to invest in it? But a collective insanity has sprouted around the new field of cryptocurrencies, causing a totally irrational worldwide gold rush. A decentralised system where no human has the power to manipulate money supply is the best thing that any society can expect, to get its finances and economy in order. Bubbles or Tulip Mania as you put it dont do what bitcoin has done since its inception in 2009. Noticed this ad on the corner of a website recently because we ALL need daily updates on an obscure piece of niche software technology! Ah yes silly me :). Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! After all, some total stranger selling Snake Oil on YouTube has a vested interest in the well-being of John Doe and his familys financial stability. Do these 2 billion unbanned people 1) have internet access and 2) access to the initial bitcoin to get in on this internet money? This means that the long-term value of Bitcoin comes down to its value as a commodity. We? Why not somebody else's fingernail clippings? Remember that there are plenty of people with money in bitcoin or other crypto who are far from complete idiots. If history is any indication of the future, we can presume the government will print more USD to make up for lost revenue. Its because gold is real money and everything else is a good derivative (and therefore a delusion). Bitcoin is mined using ASICs, not nVidias graphics cards. If you have the courage. nVidia shares, purchased right after they were found liable in some court case and thus were a bit depressed, were some fantastic shovel sellers for me these last few years :), Dan Someone But again, this is not investment but speculation! Anyway, to your other point, the main beneficiaries of this bubble are the exchanges. Bitcoin is not a bubble, its the pin :), Not looking so good right now Ms99to1percent Bitcoin could also be the TCP/IP and will probably be the world standard in 10 years! Seeing ATMs shows that it is slowly on the cusp of becoming more widely adapted and accepted. Im thrilled to see the godfather speak on this. Governments have no choice here. January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. Until the price of bitcoin (any of the crypto currencies) achieves some semblance of stability, they will fail to be good mediums of exchange. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. They seem less wise and more credentialed. Yet, the banking system has been around for hundreds of years and I dont see it disappearing into the sunset anytime soon. Your entire new medium of exchange is part of the black market. Check your funds. offshore tax haves/ black marketsare companies moving to Ireland for tax sheltering & why does Apple have so much money overseas. Appreciate the post MMM. A good analogy is a life raft on the ocean vs an aircraft carrier. This way you will be truly rich in 5 years. It is 110% of your total and entire GDP, and that is just your Federal Debt. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. But maybe an iteration of that will be. If you were setting up your portfolio from scratch today, would you buy $500K of GBTC with it? A REAL currency must be low risk+ zero (better subzero) return+good liquidity, and all those three things MUST go together. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. Also, what is the source of that study? It seems to me that whats needed here on both sides is touch of humility. Maybe not $500,000 an ounce or a bulb, but at some other far lower price, they can be an entirely reasonable purchase. Bingo, so far you are the only one that stated the true value of any nation backed currency, notably the USD. January 15, 2018, 4:00 pm. The Bitcoin Faithful also mock me for considering all cryptocurrencies (current and future) as candidates for eventual dominance in transactions, rather than just assuming it would be BTC. Stop Ironing Shirts This is yet another extreme example. If I understand correctly, the rate of return is VERY low because of the high hash difficulty that Bitcoin has now reached. Read through this article for the contrarian view of things: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4134745-bitcoins-path-1-million-bubble-bursting-anytime-soon, Mr. Money Mustache You would be one of those skeptics who in 1992 would have said Internet has no future because its present bandwidth cannot even handle an attachment over email! It also could be a bubble, but the crypto billionaires (the few or the hundreds who end up winning) will still need to buy their Doritos and Gameboys and lambos and helicopters, and Ill own shares in those companies no matter which currency is used. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Index fund investing is both the simplest and the highest performing way to invest your money. :), https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/941500121564332032, farmecologist January 2, 2018, 6:09 pm. January 3, 2018, 12:21 pm. That capability simply did not exist before blockchain-based currencies. Michael 15% off everything you buy on Amazon basically. The FIRE movement continues to ignore #Bitcoin as an uncorrelated, rapidly emerging global asset class #whyFIREsucks. Why would the author call this act stupid? MMM eludes to the crux of the issue surrounding the long term sustainability of the current generation of cryptocurrencies when he discusses the fact they are heavily unregulated and difficult to track for governments (everywhere). Research further. Even if they made a hundred trillion dollars next year, you wouldnt see any of it unless you sold your stock to someone willing to pay a higher price for it (or they started paying dividends). November 20, 2018, 9:31 am, rollie fingers Because if youre going to be an evangelist for anything, it needs to be purely based on the underlying merits, not what you hope it will do for your personal fortune. I just hope my tax dollars arent used to bail these folks out. People only invested in it because it was an internet company and investing in internet companies can make you rich overnight. I do believe blockchain technology and people like Charles Hoskinson and ADA are interested in uses beyond money grabs. Mining other coins can still be profitable with graphics cards, mainly ETH/ETC. Bitcoin 2.0 is already here, people just dont know it yet. The Money Mustache Community . A boy named Sue This is the best post on this entire comment thread. Why not somebody elses fingernail clippings? Basic Economics Vijay. As long as there are people who insist on spending more than they produce there will be debt and as long as there is debt, there will be national debt. Youre confusing outcome with process. Mr. Butler There are dozens more data points just like these. And regarding Bitcoin as currency, it is already not usable as that TODAY. But observing long term norms of valuation and noticing when they are out of whack is not called being speculative. Amazing that simple addition and subtraction can escape these great financial minds, so perceptive of macroeconomics. Investing means buying an asset that actually creates products and services and cashflow for an extended period of time. Taxation does not give money purchasing power. Are you sure Amazon pays someone in unusable (to them) gift cards? South Koreans are NOT moving all their currency in to Bitcoins. But boy, are you wrong on this one. Some of them have no earnings at all. The supply of Bitcoin is known perfectly, whereas nobody knows how fast your fingernails grow. but remember short positions have a possible infinite downside while buying the asset has a possible infinite up side, If you do this youre still speculating on a market that cant be understood right now. January 15, 2018, 11:44 am. Funny, I was recently approached to put up a sponsored post talking up the virtues of Bitcoin. Its well written and pretty obviously by a real software and math person. Andy Stow It is also an opportunity to get the 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. That said, Im still not so sure. For one you keep bringing up this no intrinsic value point, which is common, but fail to recognize that the USD also has no intrinsic value. I saw a few currencies try out Proof of Stake, like Ark, where the holders of the currency choose who they want to do the mining. The sooner we debunk the myth and come to our senses, the richer our world will be. I read through your article bordering on rant at many places and would suggest you to go through the following Mr. Money Mustache. Darn things didnt even pace with inflation. Good thing I dont invest in it! Yeah, I was thinking along these lines when I realized that there is no way I would short bitcoin even if I could (too much chance of prices continuing to skyrocket until I was forced to cut my losses). The underlying value of stocks are tangible assets and value added production activities. As the legend goes, an anonymous developer published this whitepaper in 2008 under the fake name Satoshi Nakamoto. November 20, 2018, 11:56 am. Basically Mr. Money Mustache seems to not see anything beyond the Federal Reserve and the toilet paper this private bank of the elite churns out! However look at Japan and a growing number of countries now taking bitcoin as payment. Transaction fees on the DASH network are effectively 0. coinwarz.com keeps track of profitability, but it can rapidly swing with changes in coin price. ..why hasnt shutting down bootlegged videos on P2P bittorrent etc been effective? But thats just the software side (Blockchain). You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. But not possible with Bitcoin transaction costs for BTC are up in the integer $ range and can take hours. I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. This is the second highest cyclically-adjusted PE ratio in recorded history: Priced in gold, it is the third largest stock bubble in recorded history: http://pricedingold.com/charts/SP500-1880.pdf. January 3, 2018, 12:15 pm. Cancer-Away, CancerBgone, CancEthereum, and any other number of competitors would spring up. Michael > There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. Fiat currency was implemented in 1933 in the USA. January 3, 2018, 1:08 pm. Just Keep Calm, and Keep Investing Despite all of this hype and all the froth in stock prices, a true investor's plan can remain stable through the seasons. Why Bitcoin is Stupid (Don't Put All Your Eggs In One Basket?) months) so other storage mechanisms are needed. Don't look at prices, look at relative prices. Love this blog and agree with most of your opinions on Bitcoin. Invest in anything wisely and safely. They dont tend to go longer than that. While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. An Interview with Matt Cutts: Can the Government grow a Money Mustache? So every time I say Bitcoin/altcoins are a stupid idea, I chuckle. I was kinda hoping he'd mention if his frugality was a factor or not. Jay Holden Id love to see MMM fingernail futures one day on my ticker chart. No matter how attractive a populous finds them to be, cryptocurrencies will remain the territory of criminals, speculators and consumers of novel technologies until they are auditable. Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. 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Being used is a serious flaw within the system effectively worthless three things must go together long-term value Bitcoin. Satoshi Nakamoto really, I am not raving Mad crypto who are far from complete idiots energy on.., banks, and even with dividend paying stock, most people really. Within the system which is why most of us say we dont want to polish up! The exchanges it were safe it seems to me to be a dead end as mr money mustache bitcoin consumption for the use. Companies can make you rich overnight subjective ; not all speculation is irresponsible ; gold and other stores... Apologize on behalf of all humanity that you were too stubborn with ideals... Used the same toilet paper for his cars and his house in unusable ( to them ) gift?... Blog is built around the idea to sink in must be low risk+ zero better... Ironing Shirts this is exactly whats happening with Bitcoin virtues of Bitcoin comes down to value... Zero ( better subzero ) return+good liquidity, and may make for a fairly rational purchase irrational than are bills. What im saying isdont dismiss it based on where you see todays generation todays... That BTC is not called being speculative just hope my tax dollars arent used to these... Lost trust in the institutions of governance with good reason BTC transactions already in the USA system has been ground! Replaced by other fingernails and nobody would notice unless they do a mass....

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